Galea I, Lederer C, Neuhaus A, Muraro PA, Scalfari A, Koch-Henriksen N, Heesen C, Koepke S, Stellmann P, Albrecht H, Winkelmann A, Weber F, Bahn E, Hauser M, Edan G, Ebers G, Daumer M.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Evidence-Based Decision Support Tool in Multiple Sclerosis (EBDiMS) is the first web-based prognostic calculator in multiple sclerosis (MS) capable of delivering individualized estimates of disease progression. It has recently been extended to provide long-term predictions based on the data from a large natural history cohort. METHODS: We compared the predictive accuracy and consistency of EBDiMS with that of 17 neurologists highly specialized in MS. RESULTS: We show that whilst the predictive accuracy was similar, neurologists showed a significant intra-rater and inter-rater variability. CONCLUSIONS: Because EBDiMS was consistent, it is of superior utility in a specialist setting. Further field testing of EBDiMS in non-specialist settings, and investigation of its usefulness for counselling patients in treatment decisions, is warranted.

Eur. J. Neurol. 2013;20:1107-9.

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